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020 _a9783319749532
_9978-3-319-74953-2
024 7 _a10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
_2doi
050 4 _aHB71-74
072 7 _aKCK
_2bicssc
072 7 _aBUS085000
_2bisacsh
072 7 _aKCK
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082 0 4 _a330.01
_223
100 1 _aHalkjelsvik, Torleif.
_eauthor.
_4aut
_4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut
_96184
245 1 0 _aTime Predictions
_h[electronic resource] :
_bUnderstanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life /
_cby Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen.
250 _a1st ed. 2018.
264 1 _aCham :
_bSpringer International Publishing :
_bImprint: Springer,
_c2018.
300 _aXII, 110 p. 12 illus., 11 illus. in color.
_bonline resource.
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
490 1 _aSimula SpringerBriefs on Computing ;
_v5
505 0 _aPreface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
506 0 _aOpen Access
520 _aThis book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
650 0 _aBehavioral economics.
_91081
650 0 _aPersonnel management.
_9550
650 0 _aProject management.
_96185
650 0 _aManagement information systems.
_9148
650 1 4 _aBehavioral/Experimental Economics.
_0https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/W54000
_91084
650 2 4 _aHuman Resource Management.
_0https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/517000
_9553
650 2 4 _aProject Management.
_0https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/515020
_96186
650 2 4 _aSoftware Management.
_0https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/522050
_91359
700 1 _aJørgensen, Magne.
_eauthor.
_4aut
_4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut
_96187
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Online service)
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776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9783319749525
776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9783319749549
830 0 _aSimula SpringerBriefs on Computing ;
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_94861
856 4 0 _uhttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
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773 _tSpringer Nature Open Access eBook